Réal Bamako 0–1 Police: Result & Stats

Réal Bamako

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Police

5/19/2025

Première Division · Round 23Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Réal Bamako44%

×Draw31%

Police26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Réal BamakoExpected goals in this matchPolice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.80

Réal Bamako

1.14

Police

0.80

Réal Bamako creates 42% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 80 away

1.31

creates per match

0.90

0.70

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Réal Bamako

1.31

Police

0.90

allows per match

Réal Bamako

0.70

Police

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw

74%

Réal Bamako or Police

69%

Draw or Police

56%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+

18%

Police wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals

68%

Réal Bamako 2+ goals

32%

Réal Bamako 3+ goals

11%

Police 1+ goals

55%

Police 2+ goals

19%

Police 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)

63%

Police (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

Police away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + Police defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Police attack 0.90 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Réal Bamako scores more

44%

level

31%

Police scores more

26%

Réal Bamako at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff