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Réal Bamako vs Binga — Première Division 2019

Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Binga
Binga
11/13/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 3Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Réal Bamako41%
×Draw31%
Binga28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Bamako
1.09
Binga
0.86

Réal Bamako creates 27% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 56 away

creates per match

Réal Bamako
1.31
Binga
1.02

allows per match

Réal Bamako
0.70
Binga
0.88

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par
Binga+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

Binga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw
72%
Réal Bamako or Binga
69%
Draw or Binga
59%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+
17%
Binga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals
66%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
30%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
10%
Binga 1+ goals
58%
Binga 2+ goals
21%
Binga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
59%
Binga (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

Binga away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + Binga defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.09

Binga attack 1.02 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Réal Bamako scores more
41%
level
31%
Binga scores more
28%

Réal Bamako at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Réal Bamako vs Binga

Réal Bamako beat Binga 2-0 in Première Division on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.