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Binga vs Réal Bamako — Première Division 2019

Binga
Binga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
5/5/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 25Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Binga30%
×Draw33%
Réal Bamako37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binga
0.84
Réal Bamako
0.97

Réal Bamako creates 15% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 99 away

creates per match

Binga
0.95
Réal Bamako
1.15

allows per match

Binga
0.80
Réal Bamako
0.74

finishing

Binga+0.00on par
Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binga ↓

Réal Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Binga or draw
63%
Binga or Réal Bamako
67%
Draw or Réal Bamako
70%

Winning margin

Binga wins by 2+
10%
Réal Bamako wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Binga 1+ goals
57%
Binga 2+ goals
21%
Binga 3+ goals
5%
Réal Bamako 1+ goals
62%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
25%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Binga (draw refunded)
45%
Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binga at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binga attack 0.95 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.84

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + Binga defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Binga scores more
30%
level
33%
Réal Bamako scores more
37%

Réal Bamako at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Binga 0–0 Réal Bamako

Binga and Réal Bamako drew 0-0 in Première Division on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.