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Réal Bamako vs Afrique Football Élite — Première Division 2019

Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Afrique Football Élite
Afrique Football Élite
12/5/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 7Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Réal Bamako43%
×Draw31%
Afrique Football Élite26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Bamako
1.10
Afrique Football Élite
0.78

Réal Bamako creates 41% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 73 away

creates per match

Réal Bamako
1.31
Afrique Football Élite
0.86

allows per match

Réal Bamako
0.70
Afrique Football Élite
0.89

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par
Afrique Football Élite+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

Afrique Football Élite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw
74%
Réal Bamako or Afrique Football Élite
69%
Draw or Afrique Football Élite
57%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+
18%
Afrique Football Élite wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals
67%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
30%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
10%
Afrique Football Élite 1+ goals
54%
Afrique Football Élite 2+ goals
18%
Afrique Football Élite 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
62%
Afrique Football Élite (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

Afrique Football Élite away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.89 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + Afrique Football Élite defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Afrique Football Élite attack 0.86 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Réal Bamako scores more
43%
level
31%
Afrique Football Élite scores more
26%

Réal Bamako at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Réal Bamako vs Afrique Football Élite

Réal Bamako and Afrique Football Élite drew 0-0 in Première Division on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade 26 Mars in Bamako.