Afrique Football Élite 0–3 Réal Bamako

Afrique Football Élite

FT

0 – 3

Réal Bamako

6/3/2025

Première Division · Round 25Stade Ouezzin Coulibaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Afrique Football Élite28%

×Draw31%

Réal Bamako40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Afrique Football ÉliteExpected goals in this matchRéal Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.07

Afrique Football Élite

0.85

Réal Bamako

1.07

Réal Bamako creates 26% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 99 away

0.97

creates per match

1.15

1.00

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Afrique Football Élite

0.97

Réal Bamako

1.15

allows per match

Afrique Football Élite

1.00

Réal Bamako

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afrique Football Élite+0.00on par

Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afrique Football Élite ↓

Réal Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Afrique Football Élite or draw

60%

Afrique Football Élite or Réal Bamako

69%

Draw or Réal Bamako

72%

Winning margin

Afrique Football Élite wins by 2+

9%

Réal Bamako wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Afrique Football Élite 1+ goals

57%

Afrique Football Élite 2+ goals

21%

Afrique Football Élite 3+ goals

5%

Réal Bamako 1+ goals

66%

Réal Bamako 2+ goals

29%

Réal Bamako 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Afrique Football Élite (draw refunded)

41%

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afrique Football Élite at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afrique Football Élite attack 0.97 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.85

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + Afrique Football Élite defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Afrique Football Élite scores more

28%

level

31%

Réal Bamako scores more

40%

Réal Bamako at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff