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Real Avilés vs Zamora — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
Preview
16:00
Zamora
Zamora
3/7/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta
39%
Zamora
model favours
34%27%39%

Both teams score in only 20% of Zamora’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés34%
×Draw27%
Zamora39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.17
Zamora
1.29

Zamora creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 69 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.05
Zamora
1.04

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.53
Zamora
1.28

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Zamora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
61%
Real Avilés or Zamora
73%
Draw or Zamora
66%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
14%
Zamora wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
69%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
33%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
11%
Zamora 1+ goals
72%
Zamora 2+ goals
37%
Zamora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
46%
Zamora (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Zamora attack 1.04 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Avilés scores more
34%
level
27%
Zamora scores more
39%

Zamora at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Zamora’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Real Avilés win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Real Avilés sit 14, Zamora 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Avilés
DLLDD
Zamora
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Avilés host Zamora

March 7, 2027: Real Avilés take on Zamora in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Avilés host Zamora at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.