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Real Avilés vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
2/21/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés33%
×Draw25%
Real Madrid II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.31
Real Madrid II
1.50

Real Madrid II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.05
Real Madrid II
1.47

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.53
Real Madrid II
1.57

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
58%
Real Avilés or Real Madrid II
75%
Draw or Real Madrid II
67%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
14%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
73%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
38%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
14%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
78%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
44%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
44%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Avilés scores more
33%
level
25%
Real Madrid II scores more
42%

Real Madrid II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Avilés vs Real Madrid II

Real Avilés and Real Madrid II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta in Avilés.