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Real Avilés vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
12/21/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés28%
×Draw28%
Racing Ferrol44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
0.99
Racing Ferrol
1.31

Racing Ferrol creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 83 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.05
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.53
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
56%
Real Avilés or Racing Ferrol
72%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
72%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
10%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
63%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
26%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
8%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
73%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
38%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
39%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Avilés scores more
28%
level
28%
Racing Ferrol scores more
44%

Racing Ferrol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Avilés vs Racing Ferrol

Real Avilés beat Racing Ferrol 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta in Avilés.