Real Avilés 2–1 Ourense CF: Result & Stats

Real Avilés

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ourense CF

Q. Bari 66'

A. Uzkudun 45'

M. Ochoa 13'

4/5/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés36%

×Draw28%

Ourense CF35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real AvilésExpected goals in this matchOurense CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.14

Real Avilés

1.16

Ourense CF

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.05

creates per match

0.74

1.53

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Real Avilés

1.05

Ourense CF

0.74

allows per match

Real Avilés

1.53

Ourense CF

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Ourense CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw

65%

Real Avilés or Ourense CF

72%

Draw or Ourense CF

64%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+

15%

Ourense CF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals

69%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

32%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

11%

Ourense CF 1+ goals

68%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

32%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

51%

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Ourense CF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ourense CF attack 0.74 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Real Avilés scores more

36%

level

28%

Ourense CF scores more

35%

Real Avilés at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Ochoa

25'

28'

E. Coto

30'

M. Prado← Sergio Benito

45+5'

45'

A. Uzkudun

46'

A. Perez← R. Hernandez

52'

Isi Ros← A. Lopez

66'

Q. Bari

73'

77'

78'

N. Castillo← A. Aranzabe

78'

82'

82'

87'

88'

89'

Luis Alcalde← A. Santamaria

89'

J. Cueto← K. Bautista

90+4'

Real

Ourense

1

2

4

12

3

▼

Sanz

11

▼

Aranzabe

8

Ramos

22

Yuste

17

▼

Hernandez

10

⚽

Ochoa

9

▼

13

20

5

15

24

▼

Lopez

17

⚽

▼

Bari

8

▼

Bautista

16

Gomez

14

Cayarga

9

▼

Santamari

21

⚽

▼

Uzkudun

Manager: Escobar Lolo

52'▲Isi Ros←▼A. Lopez

82'▲C. Rivera←▼Q. Bari

82'▲R. Rubio←▼A. Uzkudun

89'▲Luis Alcalde←▼A. Santamaria

89'▲J. Cueto←▼K. Bautista

Real Avilés substitutes

1Fernandez12Grigore3Diaz7Alcalde23Rivera18Gete22Ros19Poquet10Cueto11Rubio

Manager: Daniel Llacer

30'▲M. Prado←▼Sergio Benito

46'▲A. Perez←▼R. Hernandez

78'▲N. Castillo←▼A. Aranzabe

78'▲A. Bouzaig←▼H. Sanz

Ourense CF substitutes

13Vivas5Prado14Perez20Gueye16Munoz18Rabadan6Castillo23Punzano21Guerrero7Bouzaig15Rivas

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Avilés 2–1 Ourense CF

Real Avilés beat Ourense CF 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 5, 2026.

Goals: M. Ochoa (13'), A. Uzkudun (45'), Q. Bari (66').

The match was played at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta in Avilés.

Real Avilés vs Ourense CF — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Avilés 2–1 Ourense CF