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Real Avilés vs Navarro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Navarro
Navarro
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Román Suárez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Avilés49%
×Draw25%
Navarro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.58
Navarro
1.08

Real Avilés creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 63 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.54
Navarro
0.89

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.27
Navarro
1.63

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
Navarro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Navarro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
74%
Real Avilés or Navarro
75%
Draw or Navarro
51%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
25%
Navarro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
79%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
47%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
21%
Navarro 1+ goals
66%
Navarro 2+ goals
29%
Navarro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
65%
Navarro (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Navarro away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.54 + Navarro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Navarro attack 0.89 + Real Avilés defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Avilés scores more
49%
level
25%
Navarro scores more
26%

Real Avilés at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Avilés vs Navarro

Navarro beat Real Avilés 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta in Avilés.