Real Avilés 2–2 Guadalajara: Result & Stats

Real Avilés

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Guadalajara

5/2/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés40%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real AvilésExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.27

Real Avilés

1.40

Guadalajara

1.27

Real Avilés creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.05

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Real Avilés

1.05

Guadalajara

1.00

allows per match

Real Avilés

1.53

Guadalajara

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Guadalajara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Guadalajara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw

66%

Real Avilés or Guadalajara

74%

Draw or Guadalajara

60%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+

19%

Guadalajara wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals

75%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

41%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

17%

Guadalajara 1+ goals

72%

Guadalajara 2+ goals

36%

Guadalajara 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

54%

Guadalajara (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Guadalajara away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Guadalajara defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40

Guadalajara attack 1.00 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Avilés scores more

40%

level

26%

Guadalajara scores more

34%

Real Avilés at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff