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Real Ávila vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 15Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Ávila53%
×Draw26%
UD Santa Marta21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.54
UD Santa Marta
0.86

Real Ávila creates 79% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 115 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
UD Santa Marta
0.97

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
UD Santa Marta
1.50

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

UD Santa Marta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
79%
Real Ávila or UD Santa Marta
74%
Draw or UD Santa Marta
47%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
28%
UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
79%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
45%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
20%
UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
58%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
21%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
72%
UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Ávila scores more
53%
level
26%
UD Santa Marta scores more
21%

Real Ávila at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Real Ávila 1–0 UD Santa Marta

Real Ávila beat UD Santa Marta 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.