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Real Ávila vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Burgos
Real Burgos
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 7Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Ávila58%
×Draw24%
Real Burgos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.74
Real Burgos
0.88

Real Ávila creates 98% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
Real Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
Real Burgos
1.90

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Real Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
81%
Real Ávila or Real Burgos
76%
Draw or Real Burgos
42%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
32%
Real Burgos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
82%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
52%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
25%
Real Burgos 1+ goals
59%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
22%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
75%
Real Burgos (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.74

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Ávila scores more
58%
level
24%
Real Burgos scores more
19%

Real Ávila at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Real Burgos

Real Ávila beat Real Burgos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.