Real Ávila 1–0 Palencia CF: Result & Stats

Real Ávila

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Palencia CF

Fran Adeva 86'

10/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Ávila50%

×Draw28%

Palencia CF23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real ÁvilaExpected goals in this matchPalencia CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.84

Real Ávila

1.39

Palencia CF

0.84

Real Ávila creates 65% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 84 away

1.58

creates per match

0.93

0.75

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Real Ávila

1.58

Palencia CF

0.93

allows per match

Real Ávila

0.75

Palencia CF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Palencia CF →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw

77%

Real Ávila or Palencia CF

72%

Draw or Palencia CF

50%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+

24%

Palencia CF wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

75%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

40%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

16%

Palencia CF 1+ goals

57%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

21%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

69%

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Ávila scores more

50%

level

28%

Palencia CF scores more

23%

Real Ávila at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

David Caperuchipi← Viti García

50'

Koldo García← G. Bertuzzi

63'

Dani Marqués← Roberto Rodríguez

70'

Toper← Javier de Mesa

70'

Jorge Velasco← Alberto Martín

72'

Rubén Vallejo← Murci

72'

J. Sáez← Jesús Torres

82'

Diego← David Sanz

84'

Nacho Blanco← V. Pidnebennoy

86'

Fran Adeva

Real

Palencia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Borja Rubiato

63'▲Dani Marqués←▼Roberto Rodríguez

70'▲Toper←▼Javier de Mesa

70'▲Jorge Velasco←▼Alberto Martín

82'▲Diego←▼David Sanz

Real Ávila substitutes

MarquésToperVelascoDiego

Manager: Santiago Sedano

50'▲David Caperuchipi←▼Viti García

50'▲Koldo García←▼G. Bertuzzi

72'▲Rubén Vallejo←▼Murci

72'▲J. Sáez←▼Jesús Torres

84'▲Nacho Blanco←▼V. Pidnebennoy

Palencia CF substitutes

CaperuchipiGarcíaVallejoSáezBlanco

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Palencia CF

Real Ávila beat Palencia CF 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 16, 2022.

Goals: Fran Adeva (86').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.

Real Ávila vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Palencia CF