Real Ávila 6–0 Laguna de Duero: Result & Stats

Real Ávila

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Laguna de Duero

9/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Real Ávila66%

×Draw21%

Laguna de Duero14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real ÁvilaExpected goals in this matchLaguna de Duero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.78

Real Ávila

1.99

Laguna de Duero

0.78

Real Ávila creates 155% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 35 away

1.58

creates per match

0.80

0.75

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Real Ávila

1.58

Laguna de Duero

0.80

allows per match

Real Ávila

0.75

Laguna de Duero

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Laguna de Duero →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw

86%

Real Ávila or Laguna de Duero

79%

Draw or Laguna de Duero

34%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+

40%

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

86%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

59%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

32%

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals

54%

Laguna de Duero 2+ goals

18%

Laguna de Duero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

83%

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.99

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Ávila scores more

66%

level

21%

Laguna de Duero scores more

14%

Real Ávila at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Laguna de Duero

Real Ávila beat Laguna de Duero 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.

Real Ávila vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Laguna de Duero