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Real Ávila vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
La Granja
La Granja
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Ávila65%
×Draw21%
La Granja14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.89
La Granja
0.72

Real Ávila creates 163% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 31 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
La Granja
2.19

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
86%
Real Ávila or La Granja
79%
Draw or La Granja
35%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
39%
La Granja wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
85%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
56%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
29%
La Granja 1+ goals
51%
La Granja 2+ goals
16%
La Granja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
83%
La Granja (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.89

La Granja attack 0.68 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Ávila scores more
65%
level
21%
La Granja scores more
14%

Real Ávila at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs La Granja

Real Ávila beat La Granja 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.