Real Ávila 2–0 Cultural Leonesa II: Result & Stats

Real Ávila

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cultural Leonesa II

3/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 24Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Ávila45%

×Draw28%

Cultural Leonesa II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real ÁvilaExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.96

Real Ávila

1.33

Cultural Leonesa II

0.96

Real Ávila creates 39% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 110 away

1.58

creates per match

1.17

0.75

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Real Ávila

1.58

Cultural Leonesa II

1.17

allows per match

Real Ávila

0.75

Cultural Leonesa II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw

73%

Real Ávila or Cultural Leonesa II

72%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa II

55%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+

21%

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

74%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

38%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

15%

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals

62%

Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals

25%

Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

63%

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Ávila scores more

45%

level

28%

Cultural Leonesa II scores more

27%

Real Ávila at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Cultural Leonesa II

Real Ávila beat Cultural Leonesa II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.

Real Ávila vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Cultural Leonesa II