Real Ávila 1–3 Cultural Cebrereña: Result & Stats

Real Ávila

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cultural Cebrereña

3/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Real Ávila59%

×Draw24%

Cultural Cebrereña17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real ÁvilaExpected goals in this matchCultural Cebrereña

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.81

Real Ávila

1.73

Cultural Cebrereña

0.81

Real Ávila creates 114% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 16 away

1.58

creates per match

0.88

0.75

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Real Ávila

1.58

Cultural Cebrereña

0.88

allows per match

Real Ávila

0.75

Cultural Cebrereña

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Cultural Cebrereña →

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw

83%

Real Ávila or Cultural Cebrereña

76%

Draw or Cultural Cebrereña

41%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+

33%

Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

82%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

52%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

25%

Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals

56%

Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals

19%

Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

77%

Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Cultural Cebrereña away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cultural Cebrereña attack 0.88 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Ávila scores more

59%

level

24%

Cultural Cebrereña scores more

17%

Real Ávila at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Cultural Cebrereña

Cultural Cebrereña beat Real Ávila 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.

Real Ávila vs Cultural Cebrereña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Cultural Cebrereña