Real Ávila 2–1 Cristo Atlético: Result & Stats

Real Ávila

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cristo Atlético

Rubo Blanco 24' (pen)

Javier de Mesa 6'

Víctor Abajo 23'

11/10/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Ávila41%

×Draw28%

Cristo Atlético31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real ÁvilaExpected goals in this matchCristo Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.06

Real Ávila

1.27

Cristo Atlético

1.06

Real Ávila creates 20% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 80 away

1.58

creates per match

1.36

0.75

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Real Ávila

1.58

Cristo Atlético

1.36

allows per match

Real Ávila

0.75

Cristo Atlético

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Cristo Atlético →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw

69%

Real Ávila or Cristo Atlético

72%

Draw or Cristo Atlético

59%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+

18%

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

72%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

36%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

14%

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals

65%

Cristo Atlético 2+ goals

29%

Cristo Atlético 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

57%

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Ávila scores more

41%

level

28%

Cristo Atlético scores more

31%

Real Ávila at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Javier de Mesa

23'

Víctor Abajo

24'

Rubo BlancoPenalty

60'

Luis Obispo← Dani Burgos

63'

Rafa← Oliver

78'

Sergio Rivera← Sergio Mayorga

81'

Edu Gallardo← Adrián Pérez

81'

Edu Vallecillo← Sellés

86'

Guille Velayos← Manu Moreira

Real

Cristo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Jonathan Prado

63'▲Rafa←▼Oliver

78'▲Sergio Rivera←▼Sergio Mayorga

86'▲Guille Velayos←▼Manu Moreira

Real Ávila substitutes

RafaRiveraVelayos

Manager: Rubén Gala

60'▲Luis Obispo←▼Dani Burgos

81'▲Edu Gallardo←▼Adrián Pérez

81'▲Edu Vallecillo←▼Sellés

Cristo Atlético substitutes

ObispoGallardoVallecillo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Real Ávila 2–1 Cristo Atlético

Real Ávila beat Cristo Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 10, 2019.

Goals: Javier de Mesa (6'), Víctor Abajo (23'), Rubo Blanco (24' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.

Real Ávila vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Real Ávila 2–1 Cristo Atlético