Real Ávila 1–0 Bembibre: Result & Stats

Real Ávila

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bembibre

2/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Ávila55%

×Draw26%

Bembibre19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real ÁvilaExpected goals in this matchBembibre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.78

Real Ávila

1.54

Bembibre

0.78

Real Ávila creates 97% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 110 away

1.58

creates per match

0.82

0.75

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Real Ávila

1.58

Bembibre

0.82

allows per match

Real Ávila

0.75

Bembibre

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Bembibre →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw

81%

Real Ávila or Bembibre

74%

Draw or Bembibre

45%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+

29%

Bembibre wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

79%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

45%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

20%

Bembibre 1+ goals

54%

Bembibre 2+ goals

18%

Bembibre 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

74%

Bembibre (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Ávila scores more

55%

level

26%

Bembibre scores more

19%

Real Ávila at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff