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Real Ávila vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
4/6/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 28Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Ávila54%
×Draw25%
Becerril Campos21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.58
Becerril Campos
0.89

Real Ávila creates 78% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 97 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
79%
Real Ávila or Becerril Campos
75%
Draw or Becerril Campos
46%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
28%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
79%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
47%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
21%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
59%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
22%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
72%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Ávila scores more
54%
level
25%
Becerril Campos scores more
21%

Real Ávila at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Ávila 1 – 1 Becerril Campos

Real Ávila and Becerril Campos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.