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Real Ávila vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
12/4/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Ávila46%
×Draw28%
Atlético Tordesillas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.33
Atlético Tordesillas
0.94

Real Ávila creates 41% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 110 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
74%
Real Ávila or Atlético Tordesillas
72%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
54%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
74%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
38%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Ávila scores more
46%
level
28%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
26%

Real Ávila at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Real Ávila 2–0 Atlético Tordesillas

Real Ávila beat Atlético Tordesillas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.