Real Ariquemes W 2–3 Internacional RS W

Real Ariquemes W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Internacional RS W

Geisi 59'

Nayra Pimentinha 39'

Priscila 76', 29'

Amanda 28' (OG)

4/15/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Real Ariquemes W15%

×Draw18%

Internacional RS W66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Ariquemes WExpected goals in this matchInternacional RS W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

2.39

Real Ariquemes W

1.06

Internacional RS W

2.39

Internacional RS W creates 125% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 63 away

0.86

creates per match

1.49

3.29

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Real Ariquemes W

0.86

Internacional RS W

1.49

allows per match

Real Ariquemes W

3.29

Internacional RS W

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ariquemes W+0.00on par

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ariquemes W ↓

Internacional RS W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Real Ariquemes W or draw

34%

Real Ariquemes W or Internacional RS W

82%

Draw or Internacional RS W

85%

Winning margin

Real Ariquemes W wins by 2+

5%

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Real Ariquemes W 1+ goals

65%

Real Ariquemes W 2+ goals

29%

Real Ariquemes W 3+ goals

9%

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

91%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

69%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Real Ariquemes W (draw refunded)

19%

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ariquemes W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.27 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ariquemes W attack 0.86 + Internacional RS W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Internacional RS W attack 1.49 + Real Ariquemes W defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Ariquemes W scores more

15%

level

18%

Internacional RS W scores more

66%

Internacional RS W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

AmandaOwn goal

29'

Priscila

39'

Nayra Pimentinha

46'

Analuyza← F. Sandoval

46'

46'

57'

59'

69'

74'

74'

Tauane Zóio← Pati Llanos

76'

Priscila

88'

Alice← Maria Vitória

Real

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Paulo Eduardo

57'▲Geisi←▼Laura Marin

69'▲Flavinha←▼Karol Lins

88'▲Alice←▼Maria Vitória

Real Ariquemes W substitutes

GeisiFlavinhaAliceMarquesMartinhaMonikNany

Manager: Mauricio Salgado

46'▲Analuyza←▼F. Sandoval

46'▲Carol Gil←▼F. Gauto

46'▲Mileninha←▼B. Aquino

74'▲Roberta←▼Carol Gil

74'▲Tauane Zóio←▼Pati Llanos

Internacional RS W substitutes

AnaluyzaGilMileninhaRobertaZóioCarlaTeixeiraMarziaMayara

Match Recap: Real Ariquemes W vs Internacional RS W

Internacional RS W beat Real Ariquemes W 3-2 in Brasileiro Women on April 15, 2023.

Goals: Amanda (28' o.g.), Priscila (29', 76'), Nayra Pimentinha (39'), Geisi (59').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério in Ariquemes, Rondônia.

Real Ariquemes W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Ariquemes W vs Internacional RS W