Real Ariquemes W 0–8 Ferroviaria W: Result & Stats

Real Ariquemes W

FT

0 – 8

HT: 0 – 6

Ferroviaria W

Aline Gomes 59', 44', 21'

Suzane Pires 50'

Barrinha 41'

Lelê 16'

Eudimilla 13', 5'

3/26/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Real Ariquemes W14%

×Draw18%

Ferroviaria W68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Ariquemes WExpected goals in this matchFerroviaria W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

2.37

Real Ariquemes W

0.97

Ferroviaria W

2.37

Ferroviaria W creates 144% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 71 away

0.86

creates per match

1.45

3.29

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Real Ariquemes W

0.86

Ferroviaria W

1.45

allows per match

Real Ariquemes W

3.29

Ferroviaria W

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ariquemes W+0.00on par

Ferroviaria W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ariquemes W ↓

Ferroviaria W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Real Ariquemes W or draw

32%

Real Ariquemes W or Ferroviaria W

82%

Draw or Ferroviaria W

86%

Winning margin

Real Ariquemes W wins by 2+

5%

Ferroviaria W wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Real Ariquemes W 1+ goals

62%

Real Ariquemes W 2+ goals

25%

Real Ariquemes W 3+ goals

7%

Ferroviaria W 1+ goals

91%

Ferroviaria W 2+ goals

68%

Ferroviaria W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Real Ariquemes W (draw refunded)

17%

Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ariquemes W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

Ferroviaria W away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ariquemes W attack 0.86 + Ferroviaria W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Ferroviaria W attack 1.45 + Real Ariquemes W defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Real Ariquemes W scores more

14%

level

18%

Ferroviaria W scores more

68%

Ferroviaria W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

13'

16'

21'

22'

41'

44'

46'

46'

Vick Moura← Mafê

46'

Day Silva← Camila

46'

Laryh← Lelê

46'

Y. Cuesta← Patrícia Sochor

50'

Suzane Pires

54'

Alice← Nayra Pimentinha

59'

Aline Gomes

63'

Karina← Suzane Pires

79'

Daiane← Raquel

83'

Monik← Karol Lins

Real

Ferroviaria

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Pires

▼

Raquel

⚽3

Gomes

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Paulo Eduardo

22'▲Jack←▼Luana Marques

46'▲Maria Vitória←▼Geisi

46'▲Vick Moura←▼Mafê

54'▲Alice←▼Nayra Pimentinha

83'▲Monik←▼Karol Lins

Real Ariquemes W substitutes

JackVitóriaMouraAliceMonikMartinhaNany

Manager: Jéssica Lima

46'▲Day Silva←▼Camila

46'▲Laryh←▼Lelê

46'▲Y. Cuesta←▼Patrícia Sochor

63'▲Karina←▼Suzane Pires

79'▲Daiane←▼Raquel

Ferroviaria W substitutes

SilvaLaryhCuestaKarinaDaianeIngrydSoaresLucianaMylena

Brasileiro Women: Real Ariquemes W 0–8 Ferroviaria W

Ferroviaria W beat Real Ariquemes W 8-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 26, 2023.

Goals: Eudimilla (5', 13'), Lelê (16'), Aline Gomes (21', 44', 59'), Barrinha (41'), Suzane Pires (50').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério in Ariquemes, Rondônia.

Real Ariquemes W vs Ferroviaria W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Brasileiro Women: Real Ariquemes W 0–8 Ferroviaria W