Real Ariquemes W 0–6 Corinthians W: Result & Stats

Real Ariquemes W

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 0

Corinthians W

Millene 90+5', 81'

Jheniffer 69'

Grazi 67'

Jaqueline Ribeiro 65'

Carol Nogueira 48'

3/4/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Real Ariquemes W8%

×Draw13%

Corinthians W79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Ariquemes WExpected goals in this matchCorinthians W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.88

Real Ariquemes W

0.83

Corinthians W

2.88

Corinthians W creates 247% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 80 away

0.86

creates per match

2.46

3.29

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Real Ariquemes W

0.86

Corinthians W

2.46

allows per match

Real Ariquemes W

3.29

Corinthians W

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ariquemes W+0.00on par

Corinthians W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ariquemes W ↓

Corinthians W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–210%

0–310%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Real Ariquemes W or draw

21%

Real Ariquemes W or Corinthians W

87%

Draw or Corinthians W

92%

Winning margin

Real Ariquemes W wins by 2+

2%

Corinthians W wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Real Ariquemes W 1+ goals

56%

Real Ariquemes W 2+ goals

20%

Real Ariquemes W 3+ goals

5%

Corinthians W 1+ goals

94%

Corinthians W 2+ goals

78%

Corinthians W 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Real Ariquemes W (draw refunded)

9%

Corinthians W (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ariquemes W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

Corinthians W away — creates 2.46, concedes 0.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ariquemes W attack 0.86 + Corinthians W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Corinthians W attack 2.46 + Real Ariquemes W defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Real Ariquemes W scores more

8%

level

13%

Corinthians W scores more

79%

Corinthians W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Corinthians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Karol Lins← Geisi

48'

Carol Nogueira

61'

Luana Marques← Vick Moura

61'

Mafê← Thaísa

62'

Duda Sampaio← L. Salazar

62'

Grazi← Luana Bertolucci

62'

Jaqueline Ribeiro← Fernandinha

62'

Jheniffer← Carol Nogueira

65'

Jaqueline Ribeiro

67'

Grazi

69'

Jheniffer

72'

Paulinha← Carol Tavares

80'

Monik← Jack

81'

Millene

84'

Alice← Gabi Lira

90+5'

Millene

Real

Corinthians

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Paulo Eduardo

46'▲Karol Lins←▼Geisi

61'▲Luana Marques←▼Vick Moura

61'▲Mafê←▼Thaísa

80'▲Monik←▼Jack

84'▲Alice←▼Gabi Lira

Real Ariquemes W substitutes

LinsMarquesMafêMonikAliceVitóriaMartinhaNany

Manager: Arthur Elias

62'▲Duda Sampaio←▼L. Salazar

62'▲Grazi←▼Luana Bertolucci

62'▲Jaqueline Ribeiro←▼Fernandinha

62'▲Jheniffer←▼Carol Nogueira

72'▲Paulinha←▼Carol Tavares

Corinthians W substitutes

SampaioGraziRibeiroJhenifferPaulinhaPaty