Real Ariquemes W 2–0 Ceará W: Result & Stats

Real Ariquemes W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ceará W

Geisi 90+5'

Karol Lins 49'

5/20/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Real Ariquemes W66%

×Draw16%

Ceará W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Ariquemes WExpected goals in this matchCeará W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.31

1.77

Real Ariquemes W

3.31

Ceará W

1.77

Real Ariquemes W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.86

creates per match

0.25

3.29

allows per match

5.75

creates per match

Real Ariquemes W

0.86

Ceará W

0.25

allows per match

Real Ariquemes W

3.29

Ceará W

5.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ariquemes W+0.00on par

Ceará W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ariquemes W ↓

Ceará W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Real Ariquemes W or draw

82%

Real Ariquemes W or Ceará W

84%

Draw or Ceará W

34%

Winning margin

Real Ariquemes W wins by 2+

47%

Ceará W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Ariquemes W 1+ goals

96%

Real Ariquemes W 2+ goals

83%

Real Ariquemes W 3+ goals

62%

Ceará W 1+ goals

83%

Ceará W 2+ goals

53%

Ceará W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Real Ariquemes W (draw refunded)

78%

Ceará W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ariquemes W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

Ceará W away — creates 0.25, concedes 5.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ariquemes W attack 0.86 + Ceará W defence 5.75 → ÷2 → 3.31

Ceará W attack 0.25 + Real Ariquemes W defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Ariquemes W scores more

66%

level

16%

Ceará W scores more

18%

Real Ariquemes W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Ariquemes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Karol Lins

72'

G. Martínez← Jack

77'

Bia Alves← Verônica

77'

Ester← Guaciara

78'

Geisi← Gabi Lira

78'

Thaísa← Luana Marques

90'

Emily Sorriso← Ju Oliveira

90+5'

Geisi

Real

Ceará

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Paulo Eduardo

72'▲G. Martínez←▼Jack

78'▲Geisi←▼Gabi Lira

78'▲Thaísa←▼Luana Marques

Real Ariquemes W substitutes

MartínezGeisiThaísaAliceDulceMartinhaMonikNany

Manager: David Lopes

77'▲Bia Alves←▼Verônica

77'▲Ester←▼Guaciara

90'▲Emily Sorriso←▼Ju Oliveira

Ceará W substitutes

AlvesEsterSorrisoLilianeMarciaFernandaVitóriaSantosYasmin

Match Recap: Real Ariquemes W vs Ceará W

Real Ariquemes W beat Ceará W 2-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 20, 2023.

Goals: Karol Lins (49'), Geisi (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério in Ariquemes, Rondônia.

Real Ariquemes W vs Ceará W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Ariquemes W vs Ceará W