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Real Aranjuez vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
6/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 11Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez30%
×Draw29%
Villanueva Pardillo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.00
Villanueva Pardillo
1.21

Villanueva Pardillo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 50 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
59%
Real Aranjuez or Villanueva Pardillo
71%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
70%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
11%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
63%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
26%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
8%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
70%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
34%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
43%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
30%
level
29%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
41%

Villanueva Pardillo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Aranjuez 0 – 1 Villanueva Pardillo

Villanueva Pardillo beat Real Aranjuez 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.