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Real Aranjuez vs Ursaria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Ursaria
Ursaria
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez24%
×Draw27%
Ursaria50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
0.91
Ursaria
1.45

Ursaria creates 59% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
Ursaria
1.37

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
Ursaria
0.91

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Ursaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
50%
Real Aranjuez or Ursaria
73%
Draw or Ursaria
76%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
8%
Ursaria wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
60%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
23%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
6%
Ursaria 1+ goals
77%
Ursaria 2+ goals
42%
Ursaria 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
32%
Ursaria (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
24%
level
27%
Ursaria scores more
50%

Ursaria at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Real Aranjuez 1–3 Ursaria

Ursaria beat Real Aranjuez 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.