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Real Aranjuez vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
9/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez32%
×Draw28%
Pozuelo Alarcón40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.09
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.24

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 14% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 97 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
60%
Real Aranjuez or Pozuelo Alarcón
72%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
68%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
13%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
66%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
30%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
10%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
71%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
35%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
45%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
32%
level
28%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
40%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Aranjuez 1 – 1 Pozuelo Alarcón

Real Aranjuez and Pozuelo Alarcón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.