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Real Aranjuez vs Móstoles CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
2/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Real Aranjuez33%
×Draw29%
Móstoles CF38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.07
Móstoles CF
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
Móstoles CF
0.81

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
Móstoles CF
1.25

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Móstoles CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
62%
Real Aranjuez or Móstoles CF
71%
Draw or Móstoles CF
67%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
13%
Móstoles CF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
66%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
29%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
9%
Móstoles CF 1+ goals
69%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
33%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
46%
Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Móstoles CF away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Móstoles CF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Móstoles CF attack 0.81 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
33%
level
29%
Móstoles CF scores more
38%

Móstoles CF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Móstoles CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Aranjuez vs Móstoles CF

Real Aranjuez and Móstoles CF drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.