Reading W 2–3 Tottenham Hotspur W: Result & Stats

Reading W

AET

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Tottenham Hotspur W

4/18/2021

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundMadejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Reading W42%

×Draw23%

Tottenham Hotspur W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reading WExpected goals in this matchTottenham Hotspur W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.58

Reading W

1.75

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.58

Reading W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.67

creates per match

1.17

2.00

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Reading W

0.67

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.17

allows per match

Reading W

2.00

Tottenham Hotspur W

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading W+0.00on par

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading W ↓

Tottenham Hotspur W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Reading W or draw

65%

Reading W or Tottenham Hotspur W

77%

Draw or Tottenham Hotspur W

58%

Winning margin

Reading W wins by 2+

22%

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Reading W 1+ goals

83%

Reading W 2+ goals

52%

Reading W 3+ goals

25%

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals

79%

Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals

47%

Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Reading W (draw refunded)

55%

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Tottenham Hotspur W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading W attack 0.67 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.17 + Reading W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reading W scores more

42%

level

23%

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more

35%

Reading W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reading W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff