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Reading W vs Aston Villa W — FA WSL 2018

Reading W
Reading W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
9/13/2020FA WSLFA WSL · Round 2Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Reading W39%
×Draw24%
Aston Villa W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading W
1.56
Aston Villa W
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Reading W
1.29
Aston Villa W
1.27

allows per match

Reading W
1.75
Aston Villa W
1.82

finishing

Reading W+0.00on par
Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading W ↓

Aston Villa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Reading W or draw
63%
Reading W or Aston Villa W
76%
Draw or Aston Villa W
61%

Winning margin

Reading W wins by 2+
19%
Aston Villa W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Reading W 1+ goals
79%
Reading W 2+ goals
46%
Reading W 3+ goals
21%
Aston Villa W 1+ goals
78%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
44%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Reading W (draw refunded)
51%
Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading W at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.75 · 51 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading W attack 1.29 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Reading W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reading W scores more
39%
level
24%
Aston Villa W scores more
37%

Reading W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reading W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reading W vs Aston Villa W

Reading W beat Aston Villa W 3-1 in FA WSL on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.