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Aston Villa W vs Reading W — FA WSL 2018

Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reading W
Reading W
3/26/2022FA WSLFA WSL · Round 18Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Aston Villa W39%
×Draw23%
Reading W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa W
1.64
Reading W
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

creates per match

Aston Villa W
1.18
Reading W
1.16

allows per match

Aston Villa W
2.11
Reading W
2.10

finishing

Aston Villa W+0.00on par
Reading W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa W ↓

Reading W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Aston Villa W or draw
62%
Aston Villa W or Reading W
77%
Draw or Reading W
61%

Winning margin

Aston Villa W wins by 2+
19%
Reading W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Aston Villa W 1+ goals
81%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
49%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
23%
Reading W 1+ goals
80%
Reading W 2+ goals
48%
Reading W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
50%
Reading W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

Reading W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.10 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa W attack 1.18 + Reading W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.64

Reading W attack 1.16 + Aston Villa W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aston Villa W scores more
39%
level
23%
Reading W scores more
38%

Aston Villa W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Aston Villa W 1–1 Reading W

Aston Villa W and Reading W drew 1-1 in FA WSL on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.