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Reading vs Wigan — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wigan
Wigan
Y. Meïté 90+7'
M. Barrow 89'
J. Swift 45+3'
J. Garner 64'
N. Powell 20'
3/9/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Reading44%
×Draw26%
Wigan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.47
Wigan
1.16

Reading creates 27% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 63 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Wigan
0.97

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Wigan
1.56

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw
70%
Reading or Wigan
74%
Draw or Wigan
56%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
22%
Wigan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
77%
Reading 2+ goals
43%
Reading 3+ goals
18%
Wigan 1+ goals
69%
Wigan 2+ goals
32%
Wigan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
60%
Wigan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Wigan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Wigan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Wigan attack 0.97 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reading scores more
44%
level
26%
Wigan scores more
30%

Reading at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
N. PowellWiganWigan · M
8.2

Match Events

20'
N. Powell↳ M. Jacobs
36'
D. Loader← O. Ejaria
42'
Matthew Miazga
42'
Joe Garner
45+3'
J. Swift
50'
Liam Moore
57'
Antonee Robinson
64'
J. Garner↳ N. Powell
67'
C. Harriott← G. McCleary
70'
Michael Jacobs
74'
K. Naismith← G. Massey
78'
L. Clarke← N. Powell
89'
M. Barrow↳ A. Yiadom
90'
Yakou Meite
90+3'
J. Windass← J. Garner
90+7'
Y. Meïté↳ C. Harriott

Possession

61%Reading

Shots

9Reading

Pass accuracy

55%Reading

Statistics

ReadingWigan
Overview
61%Possession39%
9Total Shots18
3Corners3
12Fouls16
Shots
9Total Shots18
4On Target8
1Off Target5
4Blocked5
3Inside Box12
6Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
439Total Passes271
336Accurate Passes169
77%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls16
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Reading vs Wigan

Reading beat Wigan 3-2 in Championship on March 9, 2019.

Goals: N. Powell (20'), J. Swift (45+3'), J. Garner (64'), M. Barrow (89'), Y. Meïté (90+7').

Reading controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.