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Reading vs West Ham — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Reading
Reading
CANC
15:00
West Ham
West Ham
9/1/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Reading18%
×Draw19%
West Ham63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.17
West Ham
2.33

West Ham creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Reading
1.00
West Ham
3.00

allows per match

Reading
1.67
West Ham
1.33

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Reading or draw
37%
Reading or West Ham
81%
Draw or West Ham
82%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
7%
West Ham wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
69%
Reading 2+ goals
33%
Reading 3+ goals
11%
West Ham 1+ goals
90%
West Ham 2+ goals
67%
West Ham 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
22%
West Ham (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

West Ham away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.00 + West Ham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

West Ham attack 3.00 + Reading defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Reading scores more
18%
level
19%
West Ham scores more
63%

West Ham at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reading face West Ham (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Reading hosting West Ham. Match starts September 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Reading host West Ham at Madejski Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.