Reading 1–4 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Reading

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Swansea

C. Harriott 77'

O. McBurnie 48' (pen), 2'

M. van der Hoorn 45'

C. Roberts 30'

1/1/2019

Championship · Round 26Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading40%

×Draw26%

Swansea34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Reading

1.40

Swansea

1.25

Reading creates 12% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 180 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.34

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Swansea

1.17

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Swansea

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw

66%

Reading or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

60%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

19%

Swansea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

75%

Reading 2+ goals

41%

Reading 3+ goals

17%

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

36%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

55%

Swansea (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 180 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Swansea defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Swansea attack 1.17 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Reading scores more

40%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

34%

Reading at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. van der Hoorn

Swansea · D

8.2

Match Events

2'

O. McBurnie↳ K. Naughton

30'

C. Roberts

45'

M. van der Hoorn↳ M. Grimes

48'

O. McBurniePenalty

53'

Connor Roberts

61'

J. Böðvarsson← Y. Meïté

61'

D. Loader← S. Aluko

67'

Tiago Ilori

72'

C. Harriott← G. McCleary

73'

C. Baker-Richardson← O. McBurnie

75'

Modou Barrow

77'

C. Harriott↳ D. Loader

85'

J. Fulton← N. Dyer

88'

C. Carter-Vickers← W. Routledge

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingSwansea

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots8

7Corners1

13Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots8

5On Target5

4Off Target0

7Blocked3

8Inside Box7

8Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

538Total Passes386

469Accurate Passes319

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides4

Championship: Reading 1–4 Swansea

Swansea beat Reading 4-1 in Championship on January 1, 2019.

Goals: O. McBurnie (2', 48' pen), C. Roberts (30'), M. van der Hoorn (45'), C. Harriott (77').

Reading controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.

Reading vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Reading 1–4 Swansea