Reading 2–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stoke City

T. Harwood-Bellis 63' (OG)

M. Morrison 13'

R. Sawyers 44'

4/5/2022

Championship · Round 30Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading41%

×Draw27%

Stoke City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.17

Reading

1.36

Stoke City

1.17

Reading creates 16% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 178 away

1.38

creates per match

0.99

1.34

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Stoke City

0.99

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Stoke City

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reading or draw

68%

Reading or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

59%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

19%

Stoke City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

74%

Reading 2+ goals

39%

Reading 3+ goals

16%

Stoke City 1+ goals

69%

Stoke City 2+ goals

33%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

56%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Stoke City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stoke City attack 0.99 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reading scores more

41%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

32%

Reading at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Morrison

Reading · D

7.3

Match Events

13'

M. Morrison

30'

Ovie Ejaria

33'

R. Sawyers← J. Thompson

44'

R. Sawyers↳ J. Maja

57'

T. Campbell← D. Wright-Phillips

62'

Josh Tymon

63'

T. Harwood-BellisOwn goal

64'

F. Azeez← J. Hoilett

64'

T. Dele-Bashiru← O. Ejaria

71'

Taylor Harwood-Bellis

71'

S. Fletcher← J. Maja

87'

S. Dann← J. Swift

90+1'

Ben Wilmot

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingStoke

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots12

5Corners3

6Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target3

4Off Target5

2Blocked4

9Inside Box4

0Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

386Total Passes575

282Accurate Passes481

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0