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Reading vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
S. Baldock 86' (OG)
B. Sharp 83'
12/8/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading35%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.23
Sheffield Utd
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 116 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Sheffield Utd
1.25

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Sheffield Utd
1.07

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Reading or draw
62%
Reading or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
65%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
15%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
71%
Reading 2+ goals
35%
Reading 3+ goals
13%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
72%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
37%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
48%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reading scores more
35%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
38%

Sheffield Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
O. NorwoodSheffield UtdSheffield Utd · M
8.0

Match Events

23'
John Fleck
46'
M. Duffy← J. Lundstram
60'
B. Sharp← C. Washington
64'
S. Baldock← M. McNulty
64'
M. Barrow← J. Sims
80'
Daniel Loader
83'
B. Sharp
85'
S. Aluko← G. McCleary
86'
S. BaldockOwn goal

Possession

51%Reading

Shots

6Reading

Pass accuracy

50%Reading

Statistics

ReadingSheffield
Overview
51%Possession49%
6Total Shots13
4Corners9
10Fouls17
Shots
6Total Shots13
0On Target5
3Off Target5
3Blocked3
1Inside Box8
5Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
431Total Passes396
330Accurate Passes305
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Championship: Reading 0–2 Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Reading 2-0 in Championship on December 8, 2018.

Goals: B. Sharp (83'), S. Baldock (86' o.g.).

Reading controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.