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Reading vs QPR — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
QPR
QPR
Y. Meïté 57'
L. Dykes 45'
3/20/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 38Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading42%
×Draw26%
QPR31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.40
QPR
1.16

Reading creates 21% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 185 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
QPR
0.98

allows per match

Reading
1.34
QPR
1.41

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw
69%
Reading or QPR
74%
Draw or QPR
58%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
20%
QPR wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
75%
Reading 2+ goals
41%
Reading 3+ goals
17%
QPR 1+ goals
69%
QPR 2+ goals
32%
QPR 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
58%
QPR (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

QPR away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.41 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + QPR defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

QPR attack 0.98 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reading scores more
42%
level
26%
QPR scores more
31%

Reading at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
O. EjariaReadingReading · M
8.2

Match Events

45'
L. Dykes↳ L. Wallace
49'
G. Cameron← J. de Wijs
52'
Ilias Chair
57'
Y. Meïté↳ A. Rinomhota
65'
D. Ball← I. Chair
65'
C. Willock← C. Austin
79'
G. Puşcaş← Lucas João
79'
Alfa Semedo← M. Olise
83'
Tomás Esteves← T. Holmes
90+4'
T. Kane← D. Ball

Possession

44%Reading

Shots

17Reading

Pass accuracy

50%Reading

Statistics

ReadingQPR
Overview
44%Possession56%
17Total Shots14
7Corners5
8Fouls19
Shots
17Total Shots14
2On Target4
6Off Target6
9Blocked4
12Inside Box11
5Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
422Total Passes525
333Accurate Passes421
79%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls19
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Reading 1 – 1 QPR

Reading and QPR drew 1-1 in Championship on March 20, 2021.

Goals: L. Dykes (45'), Y. Meïté (57').

QPR controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.