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Reading vs Preston — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
M. Miazga 90+8'
10/19/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading41%
×Draw26%
Preston32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.38
Preston
1.19

Reading creates 16% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 183 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Preston
1.03

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Preston
1.38

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw
68%
Reading or Preston
74%
Draw or Preston
59%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
19%
Preston wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
75%
Reading 2+ goals
40%
Reading 3+ goals
16%
Preston 1+ goals
70%
Preston 2+ goals
33%
Preston 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
56%
Preston (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Preston away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Preston defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Preston attack 1.03 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reading scores more
41%
level
26%
Preston scores more
32%

Reading at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. SwiftReadingReading · M
7.7

Match Events

8'
Jordan Obita
16'
David Nugent
58'
J. Harrop← D. Nugent
58'
A. Browne← P. Gallagher
70'
S. Baldock← G. Puşcaş
70'
D. Loader← Y. Meïté
70'
J. Stockley← T. Barkhuizen
84'
C. Adam← Pelé
90'
Matthew Miazga
90'
Ben Pearson
90+8'
M. Miazga

Possession

45%Reading

Shots

12Reading

Pass accuracy

46%Reading

Statistics

ReadingPreston
Overview
45%Possession55%
12Total Shots12
9Corners6
9Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots12
6On Target4
6Off Target5
0Blocked3
6Inside Box6
6Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
292Total Passes359
166Accurate Passes244
57%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Championship: Reading 1–0 Preston

Reading beat Preston 1-0 in Championship on October 19, 2019.

Goals: M. Miazga (90+8').

Preston controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.