Preston 2–1 Reading: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

B. Potts 90+2'

T. Cannon 56'

K. Ehibhatiomhan 83'

4/10/2023

Championship · Round 41Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Preston44%

×Draw27%

Reading30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

Preston

1.39

Reading

1.10

Preston creates 26% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 112 away

1.29

creates per match

0.99

1.22

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Preston

1.29

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Preston

1.22

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

70%

Preston or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

56%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

21%

Reading wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

75%

Preston 2+ goals

40%

Preston 3+ goals

16%

Reading 1+ goals

67%

Reading 2+ goals

30%

Reading 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

59%

Reading (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 181 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Reading attack 0.99 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Preston scores more

44%

level

27%

Reading scores more

30%

Preston at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

B. Potts

Preston · M

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Amadou Salif Mbengue

50'

Naby Sarr

56'

T. Cannon↳ Álvaro Fernández

64'

Scott Dann

71'

O. Azeez← A. Carroll

71'

T. Fornah← M. Loum

72'

B. Woodburn← J. Onomah

72'

K. Ehibhatiomhan← T. Holmes

83'

K. Ehibhatiomhan↳ N. Guinness-Walker

89'

R. Brady← T. Parrott

90+2'

Brad Potts

90+2'

B. Potts↳ A. Hughes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonReading

Overview

66%Possession34%

23Total Shots8

9Corners2

9Fouls10

Shots

23Total Shots8

7On Target3

6Off Target3

10Blocked2

14Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

512Total Passes271

438Accurate Passes194

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1