Reading 2–2 Plymouth: Result & Stats | League One

Reading

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Plymouth

P. O'Connor 18'

R. Williams 3'

C. Watts 67'

A. Mitchell 6'

3/14/2026

League One · Round 37Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Reading32%

×Draw25%

Plymouth43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.53

Reading

1.29

Plymouth

1.53

Plymouth creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.36

creates per match

2.00

1.06

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Reading

1.36

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Reading

1.06

Plymouth

1.22

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Reading+0.14scores more

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Reading or draw

57%

Reading or Plymouth

75%

Draw or Plymouth

68%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

14%

Plymouth wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

72%

Reading 2+ goals

37%

Reading 3+ goals

14%

Plymouth 1+ goals

78%

Plymouth 2+ goals

45%

Plymouth 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

43%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.06 · 12 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.36 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reading scores more

32%

level

25%

Plymouth scores more

43%

Plymouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

P. O'Connor

Reading · D

7.9

Match Events

1'

Aribim Pepple

3'

R. Williams

6'

A. Mitchell↳ R. Curtis

18'

31'

45+1'

55'

67'

76'

76'

W. Keane← K. Ehibhatiomhan

76'

M. Ritchie← P. Lane

76'

J. Paterson← C. Watts

77'

X. Amaechi← J. MacKenzie

84'

K. Young← R. Williams

85'

B. Wiredu← H. Kane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingPlymouth

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots18

1.31Expected Goals (xG)1.38

3Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots18

8On Target2

5Off Target12

1Blocked4

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

378Total Passes280

274Accurate Passes171

72%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1

League One: Reading 2–2 Plymouth

Reading and Plymouth drew 2-2 in League One on March 14, 2026.

Goals: R. Williams (3'), A. Mitchell (6'), P. O'Connor (18'), C. Watts (67').

Reading controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading.

Reading vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Reading 2–2 Plymouth