Reading 1–1 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nottingham Forest

S. Dann 64'

P. Zinckernagel 4'

11/20/2021

Championship · Round 18Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Reading35%

×Draw27%

Nottingham Forest37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.25

Reading

1.21

Nottingham Forest

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 95 away

1.38

creates per match

1.16

1.34

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reading or draw

63%

Reading or Nottingham Forest

73%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

65%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

15%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

70%

Reading 2+ goals

34%

Reading 3+ goals

12%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

71%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

36%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

49%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reading scores more

35%

level

27%

Nottingham Forest scores more

37%

Nottingham Forest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

D. Drinkwater

Reading · M

8.0

Match Events

4'

P. Zinckernagel↳ J. Lolley

31'

G. Bong← M. Lowe

32'

37'

57'

61'

64'

S. Dann↳ J. Swift

66'

John Swift

67'

Tobias Figueiredo← J. Lolley

73'

T. Dele-Bashiru← D. Drinkwater

74'

J. Garner← P. Zinckernagel

87'

Abdul Baba Rahman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingNottingham

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots13

5Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target4

3Off Target7

3Blocked2

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

515Total Passes394

419Accurate Passes303

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0

Championship: Reading 1–1 Nottingham Forest

Reading and Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 in Championship on November 20, 2021.

Goals: P. Zinckernagel (4'), S. Dann (64').

Reading controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Nottingham Forest — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Reading 1–1 Nottingham Forest