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Reading vs Nottingham Forest — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
Tobias Figueiredo 90+7' (OG)
B. Watson 90+6'
1/11/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Reading35%
×Draw27%
Nottingham Forest37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.21
Nottingham Forest
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 95 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Nottingham Forest
1.16

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.03

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Nottingham Forest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Reading or draw
63%
Reading or Nottingham Forest
73%
Draw or Nottingham Forest
65%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
15%
Nottingham Forest wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
70%
Reading 2+ goals
34%
Reading 3+ goals
12%
Nottingham Forest 1+ goals
71%
Nottingham Forest 2+ goals
36%
Nottingham Forest 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
49%
Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reading scores more
35%
level
27%
Nottingham Forest scores more
37%

Nottingham Forest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
B. WatsonNottingham ForestNottingham Forest · M
7.8

Match Events

38'
John Swift
45'
Tiago Silva
63'
G. Puşcaş← S. Baldock
69'
R. Yates← Yuri Ribeiro
69'
J. Lolley← Tiago Silva
76'
J. Obita← C. Adam
80'
A. Rinomhota← O. Ejaria
87'
Yakou Meite
87'
C. Jenkinson← Chema Rodríguez
90'
Tyler Blackett
90'
Rafael
90'
Ben Watson
90+6'
B. Watson↳ J. Worrall
90+7'
Tobias FigueiredoOwn goal

Possession

51%Reading

Shots

17Reading

Pass accuracy

50%Reading

Statistics

ReadingNottingham
Overview
51%Possession49%
17Total Shots13
10Corners9
10Fouls19
Shots
17Total Shots13
3On Target3
7Off Target5
7Blocked5
10Inside Box9
7Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
346Total Passes334
257Accurate Passes243
74%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls19
4Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Championship: Reading 1–1 Nottingham Forest

Reading and Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 in Championship on January 11, 2020.

Goals: B. Watson (90+6'), Tobias Figueiredo (90+7' o.g.).

Reading controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.