Reading 2–0 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nottingham Forest

J. Robinson 87' (OG)

J. Swift 23'

1/12/2019

Championship · Round 27Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Reading35%

×Draw27%

Nottingham Forest37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.25

Reading

1.21

Nottingham Forest

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 95 away

1.38

creates per match

1.16

1.34

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reading or draw

63%

Reading or Nottingham Forest

73%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

65%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

15%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

70%

Reading 2+ goals

34%

Reading 3+ goals

12%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

71%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

36%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

49%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reading scores more

35%

level

27%

Nottingham Forest scores more

37%

Nottingham Forest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Swift

Reading · M

8.1

Match Events

8'

23'

32'

38'

61'

62'

62'

62'

62'

62'

64'

L. Grabban← D. Murphy

67'

L. Baker← O. Richards

68'

Diogo Gonçalves← J. Lolley

75'

G. McCleary← O. Ejaria

82'

D. Loader← J. Böðvarsson

83'

Tendayi Darikwa

84'

R. Yates← A. Guédioura

87'

J. RobinsonOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingNottingham

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots8

6Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target3

6Off Target2

1Blocked3

4Inside Box3

8Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

515Total Passes404

435Accurate Passes324

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards2

0Offsides2