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Reading vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Norwich
Norwich
J. Böðvarsson 72'
M. Vrančić 73'
T. Pukki 14'
9/19/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading36%
×Draw26%
Norwich38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.34
Norwich
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 138 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Norwich
1.43

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Norwich
1.30

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
62%
Reading or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
64%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
16%
Norwich wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
74%
Reading 2+ goals
39%
Reading 3+ goals
15%
Norwich 1+ goals
75%
Norwich 2+ goals
40%
Norwich 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
48%
Norwich (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Norwich defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Norwich attack 1.43 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reading scores more
36%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
38%

Norwich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
T. PukkiNorwichNorwich · F
7.6

Match Events

14'
T. Pukki↳ T. Cantwell
27'
Yakou Meite
54'
Chris Gunter
59'
M. Barrow← Y. Meïté
65'
J. Sims← S. Aluko
68'
M. Vrančić← E. Buendía
69'
J. Böðvarsson← L. Kelly
72'
J. Böðvarsson
73'
M. Vrančić
76'
Mario Vrančić
76'
T. Trybull← M. Leitner
81'
Max Aarons
86'
J. Rhodes← M. Stiepermann
90'
Alexander Tettey

Possession

47%Reading

Shots

13Reading

Pass accuracy

50%Reading

Statistics

ReadingNorwich
Overview
47%Possession53%
13Total Shots11
6Corners7
9Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots11
2On Target5
5Off Target4
6Blocked2
6Inside Box6
7Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
410Total Passes456
311Accurate Passes344
76%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Championship: Reading 1–2 Norwich

Norwich beat Reading 2-1 in Championship on September 19, 2018.

Goals: T. Pukki (14'), J. Böðvarsson (72'), M. Vrančić (73').

Norwich controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.