Norwich 2–2 Reading: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Reading

C. Zimmermann 88'

B. Godfrey 86'

A. Rinomhota 90+7'

Y. Meïté 30'

4/10/2019

Championship · Round 41Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Norwich50%

×Draw25%

Reading25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.06

Norwich

1.60

Reading

1.06

Norwich creates 51% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 112 away

1.71

creates per match

0.99

1.13

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Norwich

1.71

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Norwich

1.13

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

75%

Norwich or Reading

75%

Draw or Reading

50%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

26%

Reading wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

80%

Norwich 2+ goals

47%

Norwich 3+ goals

22%

Reading 1+ goals

65%

Reading 2+ goals

29%

Reading 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

66%

Reading (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 139 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.71 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Reading attack 0.99 + Norwich defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Norwich scores more

50%

level

25%

Reading scores more

25%

Norwich at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. McLean

Norwich · M

8.5

Match Events

30'

Y. Meïté↳ M. Barrow

48'

Emiliano Martínez

62'

Lewis Baker

70'

J. Rhodes← T. Cantwell

77'

G. McCleary← M. Barrow

81'

M. Vrančić← J. Lewis

86'

B. Godfrey↳ M. Stiepermann

88'

C. Zimmermann↳ K. McLean

90'

T. Klose← T. Pukki

90+4'

S. Baldock← L. Baker

90+4'

D. Loader← C. Gunter

90+7'

A. Rinomhota↳ G. McCleary

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichReading

Overview

74%Possession26%

23Total Shots4

13Corners2

6Fouls17

Shots

23Total Shots4

7On Target2

11Off Target2

5Blocked0

15Inside Box4

8Outside Box0

Passing

74%Possession26%

658Total Passes236

585Accurate Passes165

89%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1