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Reading vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Leeds
Leeds
Pablo Hernández 43', 22'
M. Klich 14'
3/12/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Reading32%
×Draw26%
Leeds42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.23
Leeds
1.43

Leeds creates 16% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 101 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Leeds
1.51

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Leeds
1.07

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Leeds+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw
58%
Reading or Leeds
74%
Draw or Leeds
68%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
14%
Leeds wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
71%
Reading 2+ goals
35%
Reading 3+ goals
13%
Leeds 1+ goals
76%
Leeds 2+ goals
42%
Leeds 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
44%
Leeds (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Leeds defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Leeds attack 1.51 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reading scores more
32%
level
26%
Leeds scores more
42%

Leeds at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
Pablo HernándezLeedsLeeds · M
8.9

Match Events

9'
Tyler Roberts
14'
M. Klich↳ L. Ayling
22'
Pablo Hernández↳ L. Ayling
29'
Luke Ayling
43'
Pablo Hernández↳ P. Bamford
56'
S. Dallas← L. Ayling
63'
C. Harriott← R. East
69'
M. Olise← M. Barrow
69'
J. Shackleton← T. Roberts
75'
B. Douglas← M. Klich
81'
G. McCleary← D. Loader
82'
John Swift
86'
Barry Douglas

Possession

38%Reading

Shots

9Reading

Pass accuracy

47%Reading

Statistics

ReadingLeeds
Overview
38%Possession62%
9Total Shots13
3Corners3
17Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots13
5On Target6
2Off Target5
2Blocked2
4Inside Box7
5Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
369Total Passes604
267Accurate Passes495
72%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
17Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Reading vs Leeds

Leeds beat Reading 3-0 in Championship on March 12, 2019.

Goals: M. Klich (14'), Pablo Hernández (22', 43').

Leeds controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.