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Reading vs Ipswich — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ipswich
Ipswich
Y. Meïté 84', 7'
F. Sears 11'
G. Edwards 5'
11/10/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Reading39%
×Draw26%
Ipswich35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.41
Ipswich
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 80 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Ipswich
1.32

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Ipswich
1.44

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
65%
Reading or Ipswich
74%
Draw or Ipswich
61%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
18%
Ipswich wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
76%
Reading 2+ goals
41%
Reading 3+ goals
17%
Ipswich 1+ goals
74%
Ipswich 2+ goals
38%
Ipswich 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
52%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Ipswich defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ipswich attack 1.32 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reading scores more
39%
level
26%
Ipswich scores more
35%

Reading at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Y. MeïtéReadingReading · M
8.6

Match Events

5'
G. Edwards
7'
Y. Meïté↳ S. Baldock
11'
F. Sears↳ B. Bialkowski
13'
Modou Barrow
45'
Luke Chambers
46'
G. McCleary← A. Rinomhota
60'
K. Jackson← J. Roberts
77'
J. Swift← J. OShea
82'
D. Rowe← F. Sears
83'
M. McNulty← L. Kelly
84'
Y. Meïté↳ L. Bacuna
86'
Jordan Spence

Possession

54%Reading

Shots

12Reading

Pass accuracy

53%Reading

Statistics

ReadingIpswich
Overview
54%Possession46%
12Total Shots10
4Corners5
6Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots10
4On Target4
5Off Target3
3Blocked3
10Inside Box8
2Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
473Total Passes398
347Accurate Passes262
73%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Reading vs Ipswich

Reading and Ipswich drew 2-2 in Championship on November 10, 2018.

Goals: G. Edwards (5'), Y. Meïté (7', 84'), F. Sears (11').

Reading controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.