Reading 0–7 Fulham: Result & Stats | Championship

Reading

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

Fulham

A. Mitrović 89', 45+3' (pen)

T. Adarabioyo 75'

N. Kebano 70'

K. Tete 68'

H. Wilson 60', 13'

1/11/2022

Championship · Round 25Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Reading31%

×Draw26%

Fulham43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.44

Reading

1.17

Fulham

1.44

Fulham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 46 away

1.38

creates per match

1.54

1.34

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Fulham

1.54

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Fulham

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw

57%

Reading or Fulham

74%

Draw or Fulham

69%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

12%

Fulham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

69%

Reading 2+ goals

33%

Reading 3+ goals

11%

Fulham 1+ goals

76%

Fulham 2+ goals

42%

Fulham 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

42%

Fulham (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Fulham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fulham attack 1.54 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reading scores more

31%

level

26%

Fulham scores more

43%

Fulham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

H. Wilson

Fulham · M

10.0

Match Events

7'

Mamadi Camará← S. Dann

13'

H. Wilson

41'

Danny Drinkwater

45+3'

A. MitrovićPenalty

52'

A. Rinomhota← D. Tetek

60'

H. Wilson↳ A. Robinson

64'

G. Puşcaş← D. Drinkwater

68'

K. Tete↳ A. Mitrović

70'

N. Kebano↳ H. Wilson

72'

B. De Cordova-Reid← F. Carvalho

75'

T. Adarabioyo↳ H. Wilson

76'

Rodrigo Muniz← H. Wilson

79'

N. Chalobah← H. Reed

89'

A. Mitrović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingFulham

Overview

33%Possession67%

3Total Shots22

2Corners11

6Fouls6

Shots

3Total Shots22

1On Target13

2Off Target5

0Blocked4

2Inside Box18

1Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

312Total Passes631

227Accurate Passes550

73%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides0